Our last “recession” was totally predictable, only the timing was in question. When prices are continuously rising, wages stagnant, inflation increasing, while many without the means to repay allowed to finance high dollar items like homes and then allowed to refi to pull minor equity gains to buy expensive toys, it requires only a single event to trigger a recession. People were living far beyond their financial means.
People were “maxed out”. They had virtually no liquid savings, credit cards were run up, mortgage payments exceeded 1/3 monthly income. Run away gas prices broke the household ability to pay them so people maxed out credit cards to finance employment transportation costs, which weakened ability to keep up with household bills.
As for being political, all recessions and national economies have a basis in politics. Even our Federal Reserve system. Largely due to politics Wall Street had a field day with our last recession. Money invested in retirement accounts disappeared through falling stock values. Banks, real estate lenders/investors, large corporations made massive profits through politically generated “bail out” plans and cash “give aways”. The people that drive 75% of the economy, the average consumer, received almost no benefit from government bail outs, and the multi-billion $$ cost of big business, “too big to fail” money grants only deepened and extended the recession.