Aircraft/drone collisions

[jandjfrench]

A recent thread got me thinking about the probability of an aircraft and done colliding. Without trying to ruffle anyone's feathers I suspected that the chances were infinitesimal. But thinking and coming up with the educated estimate of probability are not the same thing. After giving some thought to the variables involved things quickly became too confusing. I then thought of aircraft/radiosonde collisions. I couldn't find any record of one but I did find a pdf that I think could apply equally to drones. Here's the link:
https://aerovel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/aerosonde-hazard-estimation.pdf
I understand that flying a drone in a traffic pattern would enhance the probability significantly but I'm not up to doing the math to figure that out.

 

[Phaedrus]

An Army Blackhawk was hit by a DJI Phantom a year ago while the Phantom was BVLOS. Then there was another recent near miss off Florida that made the rounds of a manned helicopter barely missing another drone. So I disagree that the chances are infinitesimal. Neither incident was anywhere near an airport traffic pattern.

 

[PatR]

I could reference some near miss and drone/manned collision histories obtained over the past decade or so in Iraq, Germany, and Afghanistan but as some of them might be classified I won’t. Suffice to say it has happened more times than I care to think about.

The “big sky, little airplane” concept of ignoring tracking of drones by ATC did not work out well, which induced the incorporation of altitude encoding transponders and TCAS on drones wherever they would be operated within X number of miles of manned aircraft.

 

[G Saunders]

JanJ, You're not including _intent_ in your random thinking? If somebody intends to pop up ahead of a jet after it rotates for takeoff and put one of the engines in the crosshairs of the FPV, the chance of a collision becomes a _lot_ more than infinitesimal. If they can do it with a swarm of autonomous drones, a tragedy is more like inevitable...

 

[jandjfrench]

[

JanJ, You're not including _intent_ in your random thinking? If somebody intends to pop up ahead of a jet after it rotates for takeoff and put one of the engines in the crosshairs of the FPV, the chance of a collision becomes a _lot_ more than infinitesimal. If they can do it with a swarm of autonomous drones, a tragedy is more like inevitable...

What with multiple airports, helicopter taxis and harbor tours I can't imagine an area with a higher probability of a collision.

 

[AH-1G]

It also determines how congested in an area you are flying.
Don't over think this, your brain doesn't need all this anguish.

 

[jandjfrench]

An Army Blackhawk was hit by a DJI Phantom a year ago while the Phantom was BVLOS. Then there was another recent near miss off Florida that made the rounds of a manned helicopter barely missing another drone. So I disagree that the chances are infinitesimal. Neither incident was anywhere near an airport traffic pattern.

Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I googled it and was curious as to the legal outcome but couldn't find what it was. It seems like a lawyer would have to present data pointing to the rarity of something like this occurring which would only serve to promote more incursions. The probability would go from infinitesimal to minuscule. I did come across this for which we only have lawyers to thank:
. Drone Operator Sues Blackhawk Pilot for Destroying Drone over Staten Island | Aviation Acorn

 

[Phaedrus]

You know that the link you posted is a satire site, right?

 

[jandjfrench]

You know that the link you posted is a satire site, right?

At first I thought that that had to be the case but it seemed like all of the links in it were legitimate. I still wasn't sure but I thought it was pretty funny anyway.

 

[PatR]

It takes about 2 years or so for the NTSB to complete an investigation and publish the results. After the initial media coverage of an event things go pretty silent during the investigative stage.

I’m sure the FAA and military completed their investigations and arrived at conclusions but those are usually delivered to the NTSB for inclusion in their final report.

The down side of all that is the drone operator gets to sweat a lot. The upside is it gives him time to sell off his assets to obtain money to help pay his legal bills and the inevitable civil fines and damages award.

That wasn’t the first Blackhawk to get up close and personal with a drone...

 

[jandjfrench]

It takes about 2 years or so for the NTSB to complete an investigation and publish the results. After the initial media coverage of an event things go pretty silent during the investigative stage.

I’m sure the FAA and military completed their investigations and arrived at conclusions but those are usually delivered to the NTSB for inclusion in their final report.

The down side of all that is the drone operator gets to sweat a lot. The upside is it gives him time to sell off his assets to obtain money to help pay his legal bills and the inevitable civil fines and damages award.

That wasn’t the first Blackhawk to get up close and personal with a drone...

Here! Here! The focus on personal responsibility as it should be and not on blanket prohibitions!

 

[Phaedrus]

The down side of all that is the drone operator gets to sweat a lot. The upside is it gives him time to sell off his assets to obtain money to help pay his legal bills and the inevitable civil fines and damages award.
.

This is totally unfair. The Dude was getting some totally Kewl BVLOS footage flying waaaaaay out over the water. Really stretching the limits. Video got tons of like too. Until the stupid helicopter ruined it all by flying in the drone's airspace. Why would DJI make a drone that can fly so far out if it wasn't ok to do it? This is all Effed up. I hope the drone guy sticks it to them big time.

 

[jandjfrench]

This is totally unfair. The Dude was getting some totally Kewl BVLOS footage flying waaaaaay out over the water. Really stretching the limits. Video got tons of like too. Until the stupid helicopter ruined it all by flying in the drone's airspace. Why would DJI make a drone that can fly so far out if it wasn't ok to do it? This is all Effed up. I hope the drone guy sticks it to them big time.

We find this juror acceptable!

 

[PatR]

Or at least highly sarcastic[emoji6]

 

[Phaedrus]

Or at least highly sarcastic[emoji6]

Sarcastic? Moi???

 

[ravell]

currently on a Thursday afternoon 20,000+ birds in the sky so the possibility is there, all it takes is one to cause an incident.. Just a matter of time before next...!

 

[Phaedrus]

View attachment 14107 currently on a Thursday afternoon 20,000+ birds in the sky so the possibility is there, all it takes is one to cause an incident.. Just a matter of time before next...!

How many aircraft? We're not too worried about collisions with birds

 

[AH-1G]

Listen, it's bound to happen, and when it does it does. Why worry about it?

 

[ChuckBridges]

The best we can do is to follow all the regulations and be vigilant of people who don't quite follow the rules. I would like to believe that the vast majority of UAV owner/pilots follow the laws in place. Those that don't put us all in a bad light, and put aircraft/people in danger.

 

[PatR]

We might bear in mind most car “accidents” are not accidents at all, they are incidents. They occur when drivers do something wrong, with interferes with drivers doing things right. Most all of them are “preventable” but they continue to occur with extreme regularity for the same reasons.

As noted previously, incidents between manned and unmanned aviation WILL happen. The only way for them not to happen is to remove one or the other from the airspace.